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FACTBOX
WORLD FOREX RESERVES AND U.S. DEFICITS

Reuters
Aug. 2, 2005

WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - China's decision to shift its yuan from a fixed dollar exchange rate to a multi-currency target in July has intensified speculation over how much longer Asia's central banks will continue to build dollar reserves.

China aside, the growth of foreign currency reserves slowed sharply during the second quarter as the dollar strengthened across the board.

When China is excluded, the total rise of foreign exchange reserves among the 10 central banks with the biggest hoards rose by $10 billion from April to June.

Following are some facts on official dollar holdings worldwide, ranking reserves totals by country and their size relative to U.S. national accounts and bond markets.


INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

  • World foreign currency reserves totaled $3.81 trillion in February 2005, according to the Bank for International Settlements - up almost half a trillion dollars from $3.36 trillion in March 2004 and almost double end-1998 levels.
  • Developing countries hold about 55 percent of these reserves at some $2.1 trillion worth, according to BIS data. Their portion of world forex reserves has declined by almost 10 percent between early 2004 and early 2005.
  • Most recent estimates of the breakdown of those reserves show 64 percent denominated in U.S. dollars -- up from 53 percent in the early 1990s. About 20 percent were in euros, 5 percent in Japanese yen and 4 percent in British pounds.

TOP 10 CENTRAL BANK RESERVE HOLDINGS (in billions):
JUNE MARCH '05 DEC 2004 DEC 2003
Japan* $825 $820 $824 $674
China $711 $659 $610 $403
Taiwan $254 $251 $242 $207
SKorea $205 $207 $196 $155
Euro zone* $205 $205 $207 $233
India* $131 $135 $125 $ 96
Hong Kong* $122 $122 $124 $118
Singapore* $115 $114 $113 $ 96
Russia* $114 $109 $104 $ 73
Malaysia* $ 70 $ 68 $ 65 $ 45
* excluding gold, SDRs, other assets
Total rise of reserves of these 10 in 2nd quarter = $62 bln
Total rise of reserves of these 10 since 2003 = $652 bln


U.S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

  • United States' current account deficit last year was a record $666 billion (5.7 percent of GDP), up $135 billion or 25 percent compared with 2003. The c/a deficit was $195.1 billion in first quarter of 2005 (a record 6.4 percent of GDP). IMF forecasts deficit to rise to $725 billion in 2005 and $750 billion in 2006.
  • U.S. Net International Investment Position, which measures country's total stock of IoUs to foreign investors and governments, was in the red to the tune of $2.484 trillion at end of 2004 -- or 21.3 percent of GDP.
  • U.S. budget deficit in fiscal year 2004 was $412 billion, or 3.8 percent of GDP. But cumulative deficit for 2005 fiscal year so far was $249.80 billion, down from $327.26 billion in first nine months of fiscal 2004. Last month, White House slashed its forecast for fiscal 2005 deficit to $333 billion -- or 2.7 percent of GDP - from $427 billion previously.

SIZE OF U.S. TREASURY MARKET AND FOREIGN HOLDINGS:

  • Total outstanding marketable Treasury securities in June 2005 was $4.031 trillion, down from $4.086 trillion in March but up from $3.975 trillion in January. Totals outstanding at the end of 2003 were $3.575 trillion.
  • Foreign holdings of Treasury securities, both private and public, amounted to $2.027 trillion (50.3 percent of total) in May 2005 -- up from and $1.976 trillion, or 49 percent, in March. Foreigners held $1.576 trillion in January 2004, or 44 percent.
  • Marketable debt securities held in custody by Federal Reserve for foreign official and international accounts (mostly foreign central banks) was $1.454 trillion on July 28, up from $1.389 trillion in April and $1.336 trillion end '04.
  • Treasury debt accounted for $1.095 trillion of this, up $33 billion from the end of 2004. Agency debt made up bulk of rest.
  • Top 10 foreign holders of Treasuries by geography (private and public) and in billions

May '05 Dec '04 Dec '03
Japan $686 $712 $584
China $244 $194 $157
UK $133 $164 $ 94
Caribbean Centers $126 $ 69 $ 55
Taiwan $ 71 $ 59 $ 53
OPEC countries $ 63 $ 60 $ 43
Germany $ 61 $ 54 $ 48
South Korea $ 59 $ 69 $ 60
Hong Kong $ 53 $ 53 $ 54
Luxembourg $ 45 $ 41 $ 26


(Sources: International Monetary Fund, Bank for International Settlements, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, U.S. Treasury, U.S. Federal Reserve, national central banks, Reuters news)


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